The resistance at $1485 - $1475 proved to be a bridge too far and down went the metal. It encountered some decent buying near $1440 but once that gave way, especially once $1420 collapsed, sell stops did the rest. Once it lost its "14" handle, many buyers stepped back, expecting that downside momentum would enable them to acquire the metal even cheaper.
I am now watching to see whether or not this market can hold support down at the shaded rectangle I have marked on the chart. Personally, I am welcoming this move back to that recent low because I want to see how it now responds. I do not like buying into markets with spike lows or selling spike tops mainly because the risk/reward can be too great based on the entry point and the exit point that tells you that the trade has soured. A test of a low, that holds is a much better entry point with lower risk. The flip side to this is that if $1320 fails to hold, it will confirm that bearish flag formation noted on the chart with a potential price projection down closer to $1100. Yikes!
It did not help matters any for gold to see in the most recent 13F reports to the SEC, that very large institutional investors have been jettisoning their shares of the gold ETF, GLD. Northern Trust dumped some 910.5 thousand shares alone in Q1 with BlackRock in second place dumping 428.5 thousand shares. If you take the largest institutional investors combined, their selling accounted for nearly 75% of the shares being dumped in GLD.
Paulson is holding firm but it would appear most are not. This is where the pressure keeps coming on the paper markets over here in the West. Institutions see no reason whatsoever to own the metal when they can better put that client money to work achieving historic gains in the US equity market bubble.
The current investing strategy is therefore very simple here in the West - SELL EVERYTHING GOLD and GOLD RELATED and buy equities; i.e. anything that is not a gold or silver mining equity.
With nearly every single passing day bringing us yet another new lifetime high in US stock markets, the pattern is clear - institutional money, and hedge fund money, are buying equities in what they now firmly believe is a NO LOSE SCENARIO. This sure bet is what the Fed and the Central Banks globally hoped to create and they have done just that.
As mentioned many times here - trying to fight the tape is a fool's errand. Traders have to go with the money flow. Investors had better be damned careful is all that I can say. There is a vast difference between trading and investing. This is coming from a professional trader so please do not casually dismiss this.
The Fed has managed to annihilate the very concept of "RISK". If anything, the only risk that now exists is the RISK OF NOT BEING IN the STOCK MARKET and angering your clients who are sure to take their money elsewhere. Money has no loyalty - it goes to where it can gain the largest yield and all money managers understand this. If they wish to retain their client base, they must chase stocks, whether or not they want to. Again, this is just a reminder, they are not investing client money - they are trading it.
We are living through monetary history. Others coming behind us are going to pour over this period that we are privileged to be first hand participants in trying to come up with explanations for this speculative frenzy in equities that we are now experiencing. Mark it well and remember it; you can tell your kids and grandkids what it was like to watch an entire generation collectively lose their minds and throw caution out of the window. This is what ZERO YIELD environments produce.
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